Tag: inflacija

19. Value Justified by Usefulness and Scarcity

Posted on by Ana Nives Radovic

Central banks are able to influence the foundation of money throughout the refinancing rate, but also by calling commercial banks to place an assured number of deposits accumulated from the community on the account that banks of the central bank in forms of reserves.

For example, the European Central Bank is autonomous of the countries from which, according to the Treaties of the EU, it cannot even receive simple advice. This is what is called the independent central bank’s doctrine. Banknotes issued by the ECB and the national central banks are the only banknotes with legal fond in the European Union. Central banks worldwide use these operations to carry out mandates reflecting economic objectives for the central financial institution.

For example, the ECB has the main goal of maintaining the inflation rate close to 2% on an annual basis through the most favorable distribution of resources and growth, while the aim of the Federal Reserve in the US is to have reasonable inflation targets to support growth and employment rates. The autonomy of these financial institutions is also supposed to ensure avoiding the infidelity of political assessment to give attention to producing a conventional and coherent economic framework, according to the formula that favors rules over the discretion right to take some action. In this framework, a variety of constraints imposed by the traditional monetary foundation path may come into view as a commotion, which explains why even financial institutions are trying to test alternative models of money creation, as well as new means of payment.

A sharp growth in the price of bitcoin from the beginning of 2017 indicates that interest in bitcoin constantly increases. It is often emphasized that the uneven changes in the value of bitcoins on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis are not conditioned by guaranteeing profits to investors, as is the case with global currencies, precious metals, oil, or any other stock exchange goods whose change, except for the level of supply and demand, is dictated by economic and political developments in the countries that use them as a means of payment or trade them. The majority of those investors point out that bitcoin does not have value, stating it to deter investment in cryptocurrencies.

The incorrectness of this assertion is quite easy to prove. Although there is no equal sign between value and price, the fact that one purchases bitcoin for an amount of assets denies this claim itself. What further points to the steady value of cryptocurrencies is that even if the market turmoil and efforts of financial centers to destroy its price were so low that there would be no denomination banknotes, world currency, which could be made without a decimal number, and its value would still exist. This is confirmed by two factors, where the first one is usefulness, and the second one is scarcity. If we illustrate this using the example of clean air, we will understand that it has value because it is useful, although it is abundant, which is why it does not pay. However, if, due to any pollution, it was preserved only in separate rooms, its price would depend on the willingness to pay to join those who want to breathe through their lungs.

As the most significant digital currency, bitcoin, since its very first days, has been compared with national currencies, although it works on completely different principles. Several things that bitcoin and national currencies have in common are not a typical cross-section for only these two categories but for anything that exists on any type of market, where its value has the possibility of being changed.

This article is part of the academic publication Dividing by Zero by Ana Nives Radovic, Global Knowledge 2018

18. A Great Turnaround in the Financial World

Posted on by Ana Nives Radovic

One of the main reasons why Bitcoin was created is the dissatisfaction and distrust in the existing financial system where monetary creation is principally offered by commercial banks in their lending business. Accepting their disposal means of payment against the institution that declares these agents, credit bodies, generate new liquidity in accordance with the requirements of the financial system and market as a whole. One of the most important purposes of each central bank is to control the inflation rate, while make the circulation of money easier and helping investments to expand.

Quite the opposite, deflation is seen as a risk by economists because money creation accompanies growth. The total fixed volume of 21 million was the main reason why Bitcoin was subjected to criticism. In fact, this ceiling reflects its creators’ doubt of the quantitative easing programs that the central financial institution of the United States, the Federal Reserve, started to practice after 2008. However, this restraint also leads the Bitcoin system to have a potential deflationary outcome.

The times after the world economic crisis were characterized by a strong expansion of investment that aggregated the need for a higher level of security of transactions between agents. On the other hand, the crisis generally led to a retrenchment of credit activities because consumers cut their expenditures and real estate buying, while the business sector postponed their investments by choosing to set out of their supplies. Since banking is not automatically balanced on a day-to-day basis, a particular money market was created where banks lend to each other to resolve the problem of a lack of short-term liquidity. They can also call the central bank, which embraces the advantage of money creation and establishes the monetary base by issuing banknotes to grant liquidity to commercial banks, guaranteeing price stability and promoting the security and effectiveness of the payment system.

The possibility for these banks to be refinanced via the mechanisms that institutions of the countries where they operate have established opportunities to manipulate the activities in order to create the need for monetary creation, as commercial banks pay a price for liquidity supply. Central banks could thus buy or extract a repurchase of particular financial securities held by commercial banks against the provision of liquidity.

Bitcoin came into the primary focus of global media when the financial crisis in Cyprus occurred and caused one of the biggest concerns about the future of the European single currency. Worries about the future of the euro caused Bitcoin to triple its value in less than a month, reaching the price of $141 for the first time in the first days of April 2013. This was one of the most visible examples of how a search for an alternative is shifting the demand of investors who are willing to take new market challenges, looking for more security at the same time.

The fact that the financial world has been witnessing a great turnaround, which was at that time largely represented the exception, not the rule, has led to the occurrence of Bitcoin being backed with fierce confrontation. This type of confrontation was seen because the unpredictability of Bitcoin’s price can be reviewed as a lack of knowledge about the questionable reliability of decentralized governance. It is difficult to rely solely on efficient credit control without the support of the governmental plan and central banks’ monetary policies. Numerous studies on the supremacy of common goods, open-source assumptions, and a certain sort of what some called digital collectivism have shown that the fact that this group of enthusiasts has no centralized organizational control does not necessarily mean that the whole system is expected to be reduced to disorder.

The refinancing rates that act as the prices at which central banks allow the credit money usage represent the main structure of the money market, and when those rates are high, the demand for liquidity by the banks is low. This reflects on the interest rates of the credits that banks offer to their clients, creating a liquidity shortage since many individuals or businesses are not able to have access to this money. This causes dissatisfaction, as the trend is present everywhere, and not a single bank can offer something that differentiates completely from the rest of the financial sector. In those terms, having a decentralized system is something that causes Bitcoin’s key advantage, regardless of how exposed this cryptocurrency is to peripheral shocks because of the lack of a centralized regulation system.

Particular occurrences, such as cyber-attacks, errors in cryptograms, regulatory transformations, transaction volumes, and dysfunctions of keys, may have an impact on the value of Bitcoin. Though the margin of arbitrage gives rise to financial assumptions, which additionally makes the circumstances more complex, and therefore Bitcoin cannot serve as a means to determine value, which, on the other hand, is a crucial characteristic of traditional money.

This article is part of the academic publication Dividing by Zero by Ana Nives Radovic, Global Knowledge 2018

17. The Impact of the Virtual Money Mechanisms on Total Cash Flow

Posted on by Ana Nives Radovic

Currency wars are one of the reasons why the capital of many subjects directed towards investment in those assets in which the chances of manipulation kept to a minimum. Through a review of the relationship of trust in cryptocurrencies, as well as trust in institutions in this work is estimated what impact will the mechanisms on which is based the virtual money have on total cash flow in the future and what kind of perspective of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

The electronic currency bitcoin is gaining popularity, although for a long time, most economists around the world did not give it importance until its value started its dizzying growth. There are three key reasons why bitcoin gained popularity in a short period: 1) simplicity in transferring value; 2) the ability to perform microtransactions; and 3) growing trust in decentralized systems.

Simplicity in transferring value was recognized as one of the main achievements of digital money. In the history of human relations, changes in the way of material exchange determined the transition to a new level of civilization. After the multifaceted exchange of goods for goods became more orderly with the emergence of certain units of measure of equal value, there was a need for such a system to be simplified to provide more precision and clarity among trading parties.

Also, since goods were often perishable, it was necessary to establish what could be a value guard. Due to its limitations, the price and scarcity of gold could not play this role for a long time, resulting in the emergence of money for the development of the culture of Phoenicians, where all goods could be paid. As with most types of money, bitcoin, as digital money, is also characterized by the change in its value.

The value of bitcoin changes on a daily and even hourly basis. However, the advantage of bitcoin is the possibility to have microtransactions, especially with online payment services that cost less than the smallest unit of a currency.

For example, if a site owner wants to charge for access to content, counting on the number of visits, it is much easier to calculate these values in bitcoin than in traditional money, especially for services priced at one or two cents. The difference between one and two cents is still double in traditional currencies. With bitcoin, the price may be expressed in as many decimals as necessary to meet the most precise measurements. While these differences may be negligible at the individual level, when multiplied by thousands or millions on a daily or annual basis, the variations in earnings are enormous. Additionally, there are no transaction costs, such as those in electronic banking, to enable intermediary earnings from commissions.

This article is part of the academic publication Dividing by Zero by Ana Nives Radovic, Global Knowledge 2018

16. The Need for Encryption Created a New Way of Living

Posted on by Ana Nives Radovic

The name of the most common cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, also refers to the protocol describing this virtual money and its implementation in the payment system. This cryptocurrency is decentralized and anyone who wishes can join the network by installing the software.

The generally accepted theory regarding the origin and formation of Bitcoin is that it was created in 2009 by one or more crypto programmers using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, although the preconditions for the development of this technology were created decades ago. The history of work on technology that created the base for cryptocurrency development has a four-decade-long history since the first RSA encryption that used a public key to encrypt confidential data and a private key to decrypt them was used in 1977.

The following years were characterized by the development of the mechanism of compression that was used to securely and efficiently store and verify a large volume of data that is today used by the Bitcoin protocol. At this phase of the late 1970s, the system for calculating all transactions contained in a data block was established. Later in the 1990s, the programming industry witnessed a wide range of research related to cryptographic protocols that represented the foundation for the development of electronic currencies that were centralized and proprietary.

An article written by mathematicians and digital money enthusiasts Stuart Haber and W. Scott Stornetta, entitled “How to Time-stamp a Digital Document,” announced the key principles of what would later be a platform on which Bitcoin works. This article was later quoted by the author signed as Satoshi Nakamoto in his white paper where the principles of blockchain were explained.

A very significant turning point in the development of the transaction protocol occurred in 1994 when a computer engineer and a researcher in cryptography, Nick Szabo, advanced the idea of a “smart contract,” which represented the computer transaction protocol that executes the terms of a contract. During the following decade, Szabo was working on the uprising of the project called BitGold, conceived as a decentralized digital currency based on chains of proofs of application and using countless elements that later were shown as the groundwork of Bitcoin, such as timestamping, digital signatures, and public keys. At the first stage of the development, it proved to be vulnerable to attacks, while later there were many efforts made to overcome this problem.

Later in 1997, the invention of Hashcash by Adam Back represented the proof that this system could work, justifying further research and development in this area. In fact, this idea had already been explored by Cynthia Dwork and Moni Naor in a report entitled “Pricing via Processing or Combating Junk Mail” published in 1993, but Adam Back had no information about their achievements in this area. At that time, Szabo described the possibilities offered by the advance of new technologies in an article entitled “Formalizing and Securing Relationships on Public Networks.” Consequently, many contracts can be implemented without difficulty if the possessions that represent the subject to the contract include a computer code guaranteeing the implementation of the contract provisions.

The next big step was the first peer-to-peer distribution via a transfer platform called Gnutella, developed in 2000 by Tom Pepper and Justin Frankel. From the economic approach, it is a classified currency that is not issued by any banking institution nor linked to a currency settlement. Also, it is not commodity money, nor a fiat currency, given that it has no required price.

However, the development of technology enabled Bitcoin to have particular elements of trading instruments, even though it does not share key characteristics with them. In that sense, there are similarities with fiat currencies although cryptocurrencies are not backed by a material asset, since it has value only because economic actors agree to use it and since the internet makes trade between them achievable. It is more leaning on the monetary exchange function than to that of a store of value, even if its deflationary character can hypothetically lead to it.

The first public announcement of Bitcoin occurred in 2008, opening the space for the first blockchain to be at the beginning of 2009. At that time, a reward for finding a block was 50 bitcoin and is divided by two every 210,000 blocks, which is scheduled to happen every four years. Since December 2012, the return is 25 bitcoin, and according to that division process, the year 2140 will be the one when no return will be provided, while the number of bitcoin will have reached a maximum of 21 million.

The rationalization of the nature of Bitcoin transactions can begin from the straightforward paradigm of the contract of sale. The smart contract would guarantee that when the seller broadcasts their possessions, the other party, in fact, receives the corresponding amount in exchange, and, on the other hand, the buyer who pays the price is guaranteed to receive the goods. In the earliest stage, Bitcoin was created by a closed community of enthusiasts that used it for internal practice. It is likely to state that they were then used for all intents and purposes as elements of an allegation of an identity based on a vision that was contrary to accepted belief of the world in reaction against the establishment.

To illustrate the value of the smart contract mechanism, Szabo used a simple example, a car rental contract. Under this contract, one pays customary sums to use the car owned by a certain rent-a-car company. In this case, the smart contract will routinely test out at each due date whether the amount owed is well paid by the renter of the car.

Provided that the imbursement is made, the renter will be the only individual allowed to use the car thanks to the process of authentication. In the event of non-payment, the car is automatically blocked and cannot be used by the tenant, and the renter regains control. The first order, first to generate bitcoins, then as anticipated, but only at one remove, to seize them, was consequently linked to what they served to demonstrate or transmit a certain way of existence and an assured way of seeing the situation.

Fundamentally, Bitcoin was not very diverse from what one finds in the world of fine arts since, for their enthusiasts, it represented a way of living and demonstrating its distinction

This article is part of the academic publication Dividing by Zero by Ana Nives Radovic, Global Knowledge 2018

15. Overseeing the Ultimate Impact on the Principles of Real Growth

Posted on by Ana Nives Radovic

There is a belief that negative interest rates only concern banks, which perceive their deposits with the ECB not rewarded but commissioned up to an annual interest rate that is still under zero percent. In reality, there is not a single entity that could borrow from their bank at rates below zero.

Repaying less than the totality of the borrowed capital is not allowed at any point in the financial system. When one borrows 100, one has to pay 100, plus interest, which is the reason why even loans with a reference rate beneath zero do not see their charges decrease.

However, there is another perception of this issue where, instead of seeing interest rates decrease as an instrument that a growing number of central banks use to recover temporary global demand, they consider zero rates, and especially the postponement of the negative interest rate area, not only as the symptom but also the symbol of growth at the level of the world economy with enormous financial and monetary disproportions of unparalleled strength. These imbalances are basically a direct consequence of the regulatory strategy choices made after the economic crisis by the major central banks, initiated by the Fed.

This perception of zero rates comprises the belief that they are not a tool that would appear in the files of the central bankers, but an apprehension sign that indicates that the circumstances, both in developed and in emerging countries, are now reaching an alarming edge that is even more sincere than right before the last financial crash. This viewpoint is followed by an unbending disapproval, even though it was articulated in very cautious standings of the outlines of studies, as well as in contemporary responses of central banks to current issues. The key problem is not whether these reproductions are theoretically acceptable or not but that they have fundamentally been calculated before the actual expansion of globalization. Therefore, their position of accounting remains principally that of state economies, while the actual financial and monetary subjects, even of relatively not large size, are nowadays occupied in a day-to-day situation of interventions without limitations.

Fundamentally, they are not considered to entirely assimilate and account for how international refinancing streams are now taking a key position in the broadcast of financial compulsions, particularly those produced by the decisions of the most important central banks in the world, as is the case with the spread of the bubble economy to emerging countries through the quantitative easing strategy and the extremely threatening counterattack that generates its closure. In fact, they represent primarily temporary reproductions that disregard the central position of what was perceived as standard. More precisely, they lead to not seeing their ultimate impact on the principles of real growth. In that case, a continued practice of the zero-rate policy leads to a progression of misrepresenting inducements that reduce productivity increase.

From this standpoint, each rise in the US inflation rate over the past several years is only a minor feature in comparison to the real intimidation that includes the detonation of global debt, the simplification of policies, the extension of the increase leverage rates, as well as the strengthening of the currency war powered by the development of quantitative easing procedures. There is a common explanation of this situation that refers to the typical connection giving which rates drop or rise in action, bearing in mind an increase in inflation that gives rise to an opposite system with the persistence to accept as true that it is the decrease in the particular rate that will allow inflation to rise. Actually, this leads to the lowest level of the inflation rate with conjunction in the direction of a deflationary negative balance that the central bank wants to evade anyway.

This type of explanation would be connected to the intensification of the scarcity of securities, which appears as an automatic consequence of the crisis, but also because of the quantitative easing policy. It would have the consequence that the actual interest rate of money with fixed yields, which means the one subtracted from the nominal rate of the bond after withdrawing the inflation rate, now includes liquidity, whose outcome, for a given nominal rate goal, is to diverge the interest rate while at the same time the inflation rate moves in the opposite way from this premium change of the value.

This article is part of the academic publication Dividing by Zero by Ana Nives Radovic, Global Knowledge 2018

11. The Latest Rise in the Price of Gold – a New Cause for Concern

Posted on by Ana Nives Radovic

While the price of gold continues to rise it is a sign that financial resources should be turned into gold, opening the question about the latest causes of this phenomenon and whether gold really still has the status of a “safe haven” investment.

This month’s trading on the global financial market was under the impact of the President of the United States, Donald Trump, who dismissed the director of the FBI. An ongoing investigation could lead to the opening of an exclusion procedure. This unavoidably had an impact on the value of the American dollar, moving investors to other assets.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the start of the monetary downturn from the European Central Bank, their decision not to add 80 billion euros every month but to reduce it to 60 billion monthly. The expectation that this situation will not be something that the banks in the Eurozone will be willing to accustom easily tempted a bigger awareness of the stock market, which so far has been pulled up mostly by banking shares.

Both of these situations have caused the rise in the price of gold. Besides that, two big countries, Russia and China, are the leading global importers of this precious metal and they are making efforts to arrange a new global financial system that is supposed to be completely autonomous and detached from the dollar.

The first half of 2017 was marked by several serious political events, including some of the most critical elections in the Netherlands and France. There are odds-on chances that the financial world is relatively distressed with the apparent outcome of a renewed demand for safe assets, where gold takes first place.

Another thing is that since 2015, the Chinese yuan is incorporated into its official reserves of the Central Bank of Russia, announced for the first time to have integrated, which until that time consisted of 44 percent of dollars, 42 percent euros, and a bit more than nine percent of pounds sterling.

At this time, China and Russia are increasing their gold reserves considerably, making an allowance for a progressively strict way of monetizing gold as the foremost mechanism of trade arrangement, particularly through their currencies now held up by gold and also within the structure of an exchange system analogous to that of the rest of the world still locked by a declining dollar.

Last year at the same time, demand for gold, supported by purchases of exchange-traded funds, was exceptional. With the uncertainties generated by the prospect of a possible Brexit, investors had massively taken refuge in the gold contracts during the first quarter of 2016.

Global gold demand continued to grow in the second quarter of 2016, marked by the deepening crisis with Brexit and worsening geopolitical factors by 15 percent. Demand for gold reached 1,290 tons in the first quarter of 2016, an increase of 21 percent compared to the first quarter of 2015, making it the second-largest quarter in terms of demand.

The price of gold has even augmented by 25 percent in this first half of the year, which represents its highest performance for more than 35 years, while on a twelve-monthly basis, global demand for gold fell by 18 percent, a plunge to be put into perspective given the exceptional demand last year, evoking that the first three months of 2016 correspond to the strongest first quarter ever in terms of demand. Gold demand, with a total of 1064 tons, reached a new record in the first half of 2016, surpassing the previous peak by 16 percent in 2009 that was present in the peak of the global financial crisis.

When it comes to the strongest political impacts on the global financial market, it was the election of Trump that pushed investors into a short-lived optimism. Regardless of the prospect of a stronger dollar and a rise in U.S. interest rates, there is still vagueness at the global level today, both economically and geopolitically.

Central banks remained strong buyers, buying 109 tons in the first quarter, while the supply increased by five percent. This increase was fueled by a massive influx of 364 tons of gold-traded funds, reflecting a huge escape from currencies into gold, since market participants are concerned about the global economy. Also, investment was the largest component of the demand for gold for two consecutive quarters.

There are two possible outcomes of the current situation, where the first one is reaching the global agreement to maintain the dollar’s status as the world currency, while the other one is related to manipulation with the price of gold. The global agreement is related to upholding the value of the dollar. Since the macroeconomic data of the United States are showing a decline from quarter to quarter, the dollar is no longer used as much in everyday life around the world. The central financial institution in the U.S. Federal Reserve continues the trend of printing money, opening the space for the deficit that became unmanageable. This made investors recognize that they have to look for alternatives to the green currency.

On the other hand, finding alternatives is not something that banks cannot practice. In this regard, the setback comes from the investment banks, creators of the gold and silver markets and its agents, which are looking for a particular advantage at the cost of investors, as it was the situation in the past. This is obtainable by spreading panic and transferring funds to others so they can take advantage of the upbeat period until the next similar occasion.

As this has happened several times during the past decades, those were the emerging countries, in particular China and Russia, that have benefited from buying gold at artificially low prices, expressed by all these manipulations, which explains the shortage of this precious metal, particularly because Chinese buyers do not return it to the market.

At the same time, it is Germany that does not consider publicly the fact that its gold is stored in the United States could be sold and therefore there is no asking for its repatriation. This is why this enthusiastic phase would last for a certain time based on the correction where the potential is considerable for the emerging countries to make further movements to not be allied to the dollar.

This article is part of the academic publication Dividing by Zero by Ana Nives Radovic, Global Knowledge 2018

Introduction to “Dividing by Zero”

Posted on by Ana Nives Radovic

Although created as an alternative to the current financial system, which is characterized by an extremely high degree of institutional control of market processes, bitcoin has many elements of those approaches advocated by the leading proponents of libertarianism, as its way to the broader representation in the daily operations is more difficult, but not impossible.

Growing number of irregularities that occur on the global market, such as currency wars, illogical implementation of zero rate policies and expensive QE programs are another reason for growing trust in bitcoin, since it is not a subject to control of any single institution, having in mind that the level of its demand is the key factor that determines its price.

This research stems from the nature of bitcoin and blockchain platform, which establishes the basis the future of the global financial system, since a growing number of major banks around the world intends to adopt its principles and let them use this type of technology in their operations. Blockchain has proven to be an innovative, fast and reliable channel for the transfer of funds from a much smaller transaction costs compared to what current systems allow, for which financial institutions have shown interest in this model.

Cryptocurrencies, as key financial and technological phenomenon of today, allow the anonymity of transactions, as well as the possibility to make a profit from a change of their values. Since 2013, when the bitcoin become a subject to trade of a large number of participants, created a need to explain its functioning, and all information further contributed in eliminating ambiguities related to them.

The aim of this research is to analyze the possibility of using base which the bitcoin and platform blockchain provide for the creation of future cryptocurrencies and platforms, defining electronic money as a means of payment based on the properties of the physical currencies. The main tasks of this research are the analysis of the origin, essence and role of cryptocurrencies in the modern financial and technological world. The study of the phenomenon of digital money points to the growing need of financial institutions to eliminate the resistance that upon occurrence of cryptocurrencies that are manifested towards this phenomenon, as well as to see the possibilities of their application.

This publication offers the definition of the basic properties cryptocurrencies, their development with an emphasis on bitcoin, as well as its role in the money market. It also shows that the fact that the bitcoin users are directly guided by their confidence, which is the main reason for its success, since it offered the system that guarantees the reliability of transactions and the possibility of their implementation in the short term.

Zašto se u EU pribojavaju slabog inflatornog rasta?

Posted on by Ana Nives Radovic

Tokom posljednjih nekoliko mjeseci u zemljama članicama Evropske unije sve intenzivnije se razmatraju moguća rješenja za problem deflacije.

deflacijaKoliko je zastrašenost ovom pojavom u kojoj, umjesto da dobija, sve gubi na vrijednosti uticala na Evropljane govori i to da su stavovi o deflaciji toliko oprečni da protivnike doslovno svrstavaju u grupe koje vjeruju, odnosno ne vjeruju da deflacija u EU zaista postoji.

Prema ocjeni predsjednika Evropske centralne banke Marija Dragija eurozona ipak nije zašla u deflaciju. Ovaj podatak bio je povod za uvjeravanja brojnih evropskih lidera da je pred evropskom ekonomijom faza oporavka.

Ipak, veliki broj ekonomista saglasan je da ekonomska politika članica eurozone treba da bude kontraciklična, kako bi se lakše prilagodila nižoj stopi rasta.

Jedan od mehanizama kojim bi se upravljalo monetarnom politikom u eurozoni je istovremeno i onaj koji se koristi za kontrolu inflacije.

Međutim, ovim se često potcjenjuje rizik od deflacije koji se nerijetko javlja nakon recesije.

Cijene robe široke potrošnje

Od svog osnivanja Evropska centralna banka projektuje ciljanu inflaciju robe široke potrošnje kroz harmonizovani indeks potrošačkih cijena, u cilju obezbjeđivanja njenog postojanja, ali tako da stopa bude stabilizovana na oko dva odsto.

Evropski zavod za statistiku Eurostat objavio je da je u februaru ove godine stopa inflacije u eurozoni iznosila 0,8 odsto, odnosno da je ona bila manja od jedan odsto već pet mjeseci zaredom.

Za jedan dio Evropljana ovakvi podaci predstavljaju razlog za duboku zabrinutost, iako su mišljenja oko štetnosti deflacije u eurozoni podijeljena.

Prije svega, ovdje je neophodno razgraničiti da, uzevši u obzir ciljanu stopu ECB, stopa inflacije je samo znatno niža od projektovane, bez izgleda za povećanje u skorijem periodu, računajući na stanje tokom prethodnih nekoliko mjeseci.

Međutim, ovo ne znači da je, samo zato što inflacija nije na nivou od zadovoljavajućih dva odsto, zaista došlo do deflacije. Kao ključni problem uočava se niska stopa uz koju se teško ostvaruje ciljani rast bruto domaćeg proizvoda zemalja članica eurozone.

Ipak, ovakvo stanje ne destabilizuje ekonomiju zemlje i na neki način zapravo drži situaciju pod kontrolom, računajući na nedovoljno jaku kupovnu moć građana ovih zemalja.

Kada bi proizvodi uključeni u indeks potrošačkih cijena poskupljivali, a zarade Evropljana ostajale na postojećem nivou, situacija bi bila znatno alarmantnija u odnosu na sadašnju.

Ipak, kod niske stope inflacije zabrinjava vrijeme njenog trajanja.

Period od pet uzastopnih mjeseci sa inflacijom nižom od željene onemogućava pravljenje konkretnih planova u sferi javnih finansija do faze u kojoj se mogu očekivati čak i budžetski deficiti.

Bezizlaznost iz postojećeg stanja

Problem u niskoj stopi inflacije je u njenoj bezizlaznosti – vlade zemalja eurozone će prije ili kasnije potražiti načine da nadoknade gubitke, zbog čega bi smanjivanje zarada za građane moglo predstavljati isti problem kao i visoka stopa inflacije.

Za ono što zarade moći će kupovati manje, a to je ono što niko ne želi, ali što se javlja kao posljedica mjera koje sprovode vlade nakon recesije.

Činjenica je da su strukturne reforme u većini evropskih zemalja direktno prouzrokovale recesione i deflatorne pritiske.

Tokom ovakvih aktivnosti one su pribjegavale istraživanju cjenovne konkurentnosti zbog nemogućnosti devalviranja – smanjivanju zarada zaposlenih u cilju izbjegavanja ili smanjenja budžetskog deficita, preduzimanju mjera za povećanjem investicionih aktivnosti i sličnim aktivnostima koje su dovele do kratkoročnih koristi i dugoročnih posljedica po budžete tih zemalja.

Deflatorni rizik

Danas se niska stopa inflacije javila rezultat ovakvih radnji. Da bi se razumjela veličina deflatornog rizika, potrebno je situaciju mjeriti još jednim sredstvom – deflatorom brutom domaćeg proizvoda.

On ne predstavlja ništa drugo do praćenja svih cijena koje uslovlajvaju BDP, a to su kada se cijenama robe široke potrošnje dodaju javna potrošnja, investicije, izvoz i uvoz.

Drugim riječima, ovim se u realnom vremenu mogu pratiti promjene u strukturi BDP-a.

Značaj ovakvog mjerenja promjena u ekonomiji jeste što se, za razliku od klasičnog mjerenja stope inflacije mogu uočiti i promjene cijena izvan onoga što spada pod potrošnju, čime se dobija realna slika stanja.

Interesantan je primjer Japana koji je u deflaciju ušao 1999. godine, odnosno, tada je inflacija potrošačkih cijena preuzela negativan trend.

Tek sada u toj zemlji došlo je do zajedničkog zaključka protivnika i zagovornika deflacije da je bilo neophodno u samom startu boriti se protiv ovakve pojave.

Posljedica antikriznih mjera

Razlika u odnosu na eurozonu je što je, međutim, BDP deflator u Japanu poslao zabrinjavajuće signale još u ranim devedesetim godinama prošlog vijeka, prije nego što se stanje počelo odražavati na same potrošačke cijene, zahvaljujući čemu je ipak omogućeno da ekonomija te zemlje ostane stabilna.

U eurozoni to nije slučaj, jer se negativni signali očitavaju na nečemu što je posljedica, a ne uzrok, a sve ovo se nikako ne može dogoditi iznenada.

Drugim riječima, na primjeru nemogućnosti dostaizanja očekivane stope inflacije potvrđuje se sva pogrešnost i pogubnost antikriznih mjera koje su u eurozoni sprovođene od 2009. godine.

Nepovoljna situacija u perifernim zemljama postojala je još od sredine 2008. godine, a sredstva preduzeta za borbu protiv recesije samo su usložnjavala probleme.

Iako se smatra da je Grčka najteže podnijela udare krize, ključni problemi ove vrste javili su se u Portugalu i Španiji.

Već tada BDP deflator u ovim dvijema zemljama počeo je da se kreće ka nultoj stopi, da bi kroz četiri godine skliznuo na taj nivo.

Sadašnje stanje u ovim zemljama ukazuje na potpunu neodrživost, nalažući istovremeno nova zaduživanja.

Sve dalje od ciljanog

Na nivou eurozone BDP deflator je, međutim, rastao u prosjeku za 1,3 odsto na godišnjem nivou, što je i dalje manje od ciljanih 1,9 odsto i sve dok se ne nađe na toj stopi ne postoje nikakvi izgledi za trajni oporavak eurozone, niti mogućnosti za povećanjem stope inflacije.

Ovdje, dakle, nije problem u deflaciji, već u svim njenim uzrocima, iako se evropski zvaničnici trude da ovako postave stvari.

Deflacija se ne može smatrati povodom za nova zaduživanja ako je uslovljena stanjem postojeće prezaduženosti, niti razlogom za smanjenjem zarada ako je ta mjera prethodno rezultirala padom kupovne moći.

Ipak, jedino za što u ovakvim uslovima evropski zvaničnici nastoje je da se izbore jeste da se situacija za njihovog mandata ne pogorša do nivoa u kojem će im ponestati mjera, čak i onih najmanje popularnih, čija neutemeljenost je odavno potvrđena.

Zašto EU odbija da štampa novac?

Posted on by Ana Nives Radovic

Iako su 2013. godinu obilježili relativno uspješni pokušaji jednog broja zemalja članica EU da izađu iz recesije, finansijski podaci na ukupnom evropskom nivou su i dalje alarmantni. Ekonomiski ciklusi – rast, stagnacija i recesija više se ne smjenjuju onom dinamikom koja je do prije nekoliko decenija omogućavala uravnoteženost globalnog tržišta, pri čemu padovi više ne služe samo kao signali da je nešto u načinu upravljanja finansijama potrebno mijenjati, već takva stanja postaju ona kojima se dugoročno treba prilagoditi.

perper-zona stampanje euraKada se razmatraju mogućnosti za brzo, vještačko povećanje likvidnosti prva mjera koja asocira na to je doštampavanje novca. Ovaj mehanizam se već duže vrijeme koristi u najmoćnijim svjetskim ekonomijama u trenucima kada se želi stimulisati izvoz, zbog čega dio stručne javnosti ne prestaje da zagovara da se isto uradi i sa eurom. Ovo pitanje još jedno je u nizu onih koja potvrđuju postojanje nesuglasica između evropskih i finansijskih institucija država članica, a u stanju u kojem se odluka o ovom pitanju ni ne planira usvojiti rastu samo troškovi za ublažavanje posljedica recesije. No zašto se ECB na odluči na isti onaj korak za kojim posežu mnogi drugi sistemi uglavnom se objašnjava kratkoročnim pozitivnim efektima ovakvog poteza.

Načelno se, u državama članicama EU pokušava uspostaviti sistem koji bi omogućio investitorima, koji su ključni pokretači ekonomskog rasta da obavljaju poslove u ambijentu u kojem se vladavina prava, sigurnost i transparentnost ne dovode u pitanje. Drugim riječima, načela kojima se pokušava poboljšati evropski ekonomski ambijent skoncentrisana su u sferi političko-pravnih pitanja, uz vidno odsustvo intenzivnog rješavanja ekonomskih problema ekonomskim mjerama. Ključni razlog izostanka ovakvih intervencija u ekonomskoj i finansijskoj politici EU jesu evropski ugovori kojima je definisan Evropski monetarni sistem, a prema kojima ECB nema nadležnosti ove vrste.

Promjena ovakve prakse nesumnjivo bi zahtijevala i izmjene u ključnim dokumentima kojima se uređuje ova oblast, čemu se, najviše od svih protive zemlje sa najvećim kreditnim rejtingom u eurozoni – Njemačka i Finska, čijem rastu je dodatno doprinijelo raspolaganje jakom valutom, koja bi, ukoliko bi doštampavanjem novca gubila vrijednost, uticala na smanjenje vrijednosti rezervi, ali i na kupovnu moć u odnosu na spoljno-trgovinske partnere. Sa druge strane, ograničenost u mogućnostima vođenja monetarne politike razlog je zbog kojih se kreditni rejting drugih zemalja eurozone posljednjih godina znatno snizio, jer nije bilo mogučnosti za stimulisanje tražnje i mehanizama za privlačenje investicija.

Jedinstvena evropska valuta u stvari je ključna konstanta u jednačini čiji rezultat predstavlja kretanje pojedinačnih ekonomija država članica – tamo gdje se ona množi sa pozitivnim podacima o rastu, ukupan rezultat je pozitivan, dok se kod onih zemalja koje se bore sa budžetskim deficitom i minusima odražava na negativan rezultat. Ukratko, euro je valuta koja u uslovima smanjenog dotoka novca spolja novo bogaćenje omogućava samo onim zemljama koje nijesu zapale u teške finansijske probleme, a kako najbogatije članice dominatno utiču na donošenje konačnih odluka, sve dok se ne pronađe alternativno rješenje, poput mogućeg scenarija „dva eura“ – južnog i sjevernog, monetarna politika neće biti podrška ekonomskog rasta zemalja na jugu EU. Slične za-i-protiv nesuglasice, uz podršku, odnosno protivljenje istih zemalja vidljive su i na primjeru euroobveznica.

U konačnici, sve ono što bi doprinijelo kratkoročnom rastu dužničkom krizom najpogođenijih zemalja smatra se da bi dugoročno moglo naštetiti onima koje su pronašle način da zaštite svoj finansijski sektor. Ipak, ono u čemu bi se zaista ogledali negativni efekti doštampavanja eura jeste očekivana visoka stopa inflacije koja bi bila uzrok sasvim nove vrste problema. Na pitanje zašto ovu posljedicu zemje zagovornice postojeće monetarne politike ne stavljaju u prvi plan kada navode argumente za protivljenje štampanju novog novca teško je odgovoriti tako da odgovor sadrži i logiku i ne bude u suprotnosti sa evropskim principima. A principi i načela iz ugovora se, kako se na ovom primjeru najbolje vidi, poštuju samo onda kada je potrebno zaštititi one koji su najmanje ugroženi.

Ostaje li ECB bez novih ideja?

Posted on by Ana Nives Radovic

U vremenu kada BRICS zemlje (Brazil, Rusija, Indija, Kina i Južnoafrička Republika), koje preuzimaju dominaciju na svjetskoj ekonomskoj sceni, traže originalne načine za širenje tržišta i poboljšanje privrednih aktivnosti, dosadašnji lideri u grupi najrazvijenijih – Sjedinjene Američke Države, zemlje Evropske unije i Japan kao da čekaju da određene finansijske poteze inicira neko drugi, kako bi opravdale njihovu primjenu u sopstvenim sistemima.

Ovo je naročito postalo vidljivo prilikom pokušaja pronalaženja rješenja za uklanjanje posljedica svjetske ekonomske krize, ali i potvrdilo da je nju jednim dijelom i prouzrokovalo usvajanje teško primjenjivih finansijskih modela na potpuno različite sisteme.

Ključna razlika koja je sada uočljiva među najmoćnijim svjetskim ekonomijama je upravo to što se Evropska centralna banka i dalje ne odlučuje za doštampavanje novca u cilju rješavanja problematičnih pitanja sa zemljama u krizi. SAD neprestano koriste mogućnost štampanja dolara, naročito sada u postupku kvantitativnog olakšavanja, uspijevajući da vrijednost ove, iako postepeno devalvirajuće valute i dalje drže pod kontrolom, a inflaciju u granicama u kojima ona nije zabrinjavajuća.

Da se u potrazi za što savremenijim rješenjem izlaska iz finansijskih poteškoća Japan nerijetko vraćao onim starim i, uslovno rečeno, provjerenim govori i podatak da je ova zemlja u dvogodišnjem periodu gotovo udvostručila količine raspoloživogjena. Stoga je u ovoj situaciji u najnepovoljnijem položaju upravo ECB koja je primorana da ovoga puta nešto osmisli sama, a da u tom eksperimentu ne samo ne našteti sebi, već znatno doprinese poboljšanju ekonomskih prilika u zemljama članicama. Onima koji osnose EU i SAD posmatraju kao neprestani proces sistemskog kopiranja, a pokušaj uspostavljanja evropskog tržišnog i modernog jedinstva nazivaju neuspješnim pokušajem uspostavljanja američkih principa ne ostaje mnogo nade u inventivnost frankfurtskih bankara, niti očekivanja da će zvanični Brisel učiniti nešto što bi dovelo do stabilizacije na duži rok.

Sa druge strane,Japanje upravo ovog mjeseca krenuo u proces koji su mnogi nazvali monetarnom revolucijom, zahvaljujući sposobnosti da manipuliše vrijednošću valute takozvanom konkurentskom devalvacijom u nadi da će pospješiti spoljnotrgovinsku razmjenu. Međutim, ovakve konkurentske devalvacije prestaju da imaju efekta onda kada ih praktikuje veći broj subjekata, jer se u tom slučaju relativne vrijednosti valuta ne mijenjaju.Ipak,Japanse u odnosu na evropske zemlje mnogo energičnije trudi da, koristeći sva raspoloživa sredstva poboljša stanje u državi, iako ima mnogo veću stopu rasta i manji procenat nezaposlenosti nego što je slučaj u eurozoni.

Čak i ukoliko koraci koji se sada sprovode nijesu revolucionarni, uspijevaju da ovu zemlju vrate na početni korak, što mnogima u pokušaju prevazilaženja krize, čak i pored visoko postavljenih ciljeva, nije uspjelo. Japan je svakako uspio da zaustavi inflaciju na vrijeme, koja bi, u suprotnom, u potpunosti uništila ekonomiju, a najava japanske centralne banke o kupovini državnih obveznica u ovom trenutku djeluje kao očekivan i poželjan potez, budući da je monetizacija javnog duga u ovoj fazi neophodna.

Ono što, međutim, izlazi iz određenih logičkih okvira kada je Japan u pitanju jeste kako je sa gotovo udvostručenom količinom jena došlo do inflacije od svega dva odsto, što je ujedno i izazov za ECB – da se opredijeli za uvođenje euroobveznica, budući da je alternativa – štampanje nove količine eura gotovo u potpunosti odbačena, dok je u prvom slučaju vjerovatnoća da se ovo neće dogoditi sve dok ne dođe do promjene vlasti u Njemačkoj. U međuvremenu ECB se bavi nekim sasvim drugim pitanjima, pa je i fokus javnosti tokom protekle sedmice bio na najavama da ova institucija traži rješenja za spašavanje privrede i mehanizme za davanje stimulansa sa određene ekonomske aktivnosti. I ovoga puta sve je ostalo samo u naznakama – najavljeno je mnogo, očekivanja su još veća, a ne samo da je daleko sam cilj, već nema naznaka ni o sredstvima putem kojih bi se do njega došlo.

Dok se kriza u većini zemalja eurozone produbljuje, a iznos duga nastavlja da raste, iz samog vrha ECB stižu najave da će, po uzoru na uspješne finansijske reforme iz drugih sistema biti sproveden model koji je, kako je najavljeno, najprimjereniji. Još uvijek nije poznato koji kriterijumi će biti ključni za određivanje primjenjivosti određenog metoda u eurozoni, ali je gotovo izvjesno da, dok god se iznova ne razmotri idejama o euroobveznicama, svako drugo preuzimanje tuđih metoda neće biti garant dugoročnog otklanjanja sadašnjih problema.

Zašto je euro precijenjen?

Posted on by Ana Nives Radovic
Euro je prošle sedmice dostigao vrijednost od 1,35 dolara, odnosno vrijednost dolara bila je 74 euro centa. Sa svih strana dolaze upozorenja da je jedinstvena evropska valuta precijenjena i da je neophodno da devalvira, budući da Amerikanci, zbog podsticanja izvoza odbijaju poduprijeti dolar. Svijet, po svemu sudeći, čeka na veliku konkurentnu devalvaciju.

euro-precijenjenPrema sadašnjim cijenama, proizvod koji sada košta 100 eura, preračunat u dolarima staje 135 dolara, ali ukoliko bi se, hipotetički, odlučilo da se smanji vrijednost eura smanjenjem od 25 odsto u odnosu na dolar, vrijednost ovog proizvoda biće 101 dolar i 25 centi čim jednom pređe Atlantik. Na ovaj način mogao bi se ostvariti globalni procvat privrede, uspostaviti tržišna ravnoteža i iskorijeniti nezaposlenost. Međutim, ma koliko rješenje u uslovima opšte krize izgledalo jednostavno, o njemu se ni ne razmišlja.

Čelnici svjetskih finansijskih institucija bi u ovom slučaju prvi stali u odbranu stava da je izuzetno teško umanjiti vrijednost eura ili izazvati rast dolara. No, ukoliko bi se odštampale nove euro novčanice u vrijednosti od 100 milijardi i iskoristile za kupovanje dolara, američka valuta bi rasla, evropska padala i problem bi bio riješen. Pitanje je samo zbog čega ih, kada bi ove mjere bile od izuzetne koristi, niko još uvijek nije preduzeo. Odgovor je moguće potražiti u činjenici da je, nezavisno od biračkih tijela, pojedinačna javnost podijeljena u dvije grupe, pri čemu ta podjela potpuno nadilazi zastarjele klasifikacije poput ljevičara i desničara ili konzervativnih i liberalnih struja. Postoji velika grupa onih koji, bez obzira iz kojeg društvenog miljea dolaze, vjeruju da su krize posljedica prevara lidera iz sjenki na finansijskim tržištima i manipulacija rejting agencija, dok drugi čine optimiste koji bezuslovno vjeruju u čuda. Ovim se otvara velika rasprava na temu u kojoj mjeri moderna ekonomija sve više liči na rat. No, ukoliko se krene od polaznih shvatanja da u odnosima u kojima su zemlje postavljene kao tržišni učesnici postoje pravila, ekonomija više liči na sportsko takmičenje – postoje principi koji se poštuju kako bi se na fer način došlo do što boljih rezultata, vodeći je onaj ko angažovanošću ostvari najviše, dok onaj ko počne da se služi nedozvoljenim sredstvima pretvara igru u rat.

Ulogu sudije igra Svjetska trgovinska organizacija, vlade zemalja članica su prihvatile pravila igre, među kojima je i zabrana uspostavljanja konkurentne devalvacije. Posljednji put kada se ona zvanično dogodila, okončala se Drugim svjetskim ratom, iako se kasnije dešavalo da je neke od zemalja prikriveno i oprezno koriste kako bi ostvarile određene tržišne prednosti, što su u drugoj polovini prošlog vijeka najviše činile Sjedinjene Američke Države. U ostatku svijeta ključni razlog za protivljenje konkurentnoj devalvaciji je inflatorni rast velikih razmjera. Činjenica je da bi smanjenje vrijednosti eura za četvrtinu u odnosu na dolar učinilo izvoz evropskih zemalja dodatno konkurentnim, ali bi se ovim otežao uvoz, jer bi uvezeni proizvod sa druge strane po cijeni od 100 eura nakon svih promjena vrijednosti na kraju koštao 133 dolara, čak za trećinu više u odnosu na početnu cijenu.

Iako zvuči trivijalno, neophodno je uzeti u obzir da najveći broj zemalja uvozi mnogo više proizvoda nego što ih izvozi. Dok se po pitanju brojnih proizvoda, naročito kod prehrambene industrije, vode rasprave da li domaća ponuda zadovoljava zahtjeve tržišta i čime je uslovljena dominacija stranih proizvoda, postoje situacije u kojima uvezeni proizvodi nemaju domaći ekvivalent, a tipičan primjer su energenti, prije svega gorivo koje proizvodi relativnomalibroj zemalja u svijetu. Osim goriva, i kroz cijene uvezenih sirovina, na primjer za proizvodnju koje se kupuju u dolarima zemlje eurozone uvoze inflaciju kroz dalje formiranje potrošačkih cijena, smanjenje kupovne moći domaćinstava ili ukupni pad potrošnje.

Zbog svega navedenog bilo bi gotovo besmisleno, a takođe i nemoguće nabrojati sve efekte koje bi izazvalo devalviranje eura. Međutim, činjenica je da se mnogi procesi ne dešavaju jer idu u korist mnogo većem broju populacije, budući da u ovom odnosu snaga prosperitet jednih uslovljava štetu drugih. Sumiranje prednosti na strani na kojoj se nalazi bogatstvo, ali i izvlačenja profita od onih koji su na gubitku na kraju, kao i svaka uravnoteženost pozitivnih i negativnih brojki rezultira nulom, te čim se na jednoj strani otvore mogućnosti za rast, na drugoj se može očekivati kriza.